California backlash hands defeat to progressive criminal justice reform

Californians may have given their decisive support to Vice President Kamala Harris this week, but they took a conservative turn on crime, by defeating progressive criminal justice policies and candidates.

The backlash was in step with national polls showing Americans increasingly concerned about crime, despite an overall drop in violent and property crime since the 1990s. 

California’s crime numbers, though, are relatively high. And, says Mark Baldassare, survey director for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California, regardless of statistics, what matters most to voters is how they feel about safety at home. 

In response, California voters brought back felony prosecutions for some drug and theft crimes, and in Los Angeles, replaced progressive reformer Democratic District Attorney George Gascón with a former Republican who ran as an independent. And voters in Alameda County supported the recall of DA Pamela Price, a reform advocate.

The variances among Democratic voters are proof that liberal Californians are not monolithic, says Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis. Despite a supermajority of Democrats holding state offices, she adds, “we still have a great deal of plural thinking.”

True-blue California predictably delivered its 54 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris this week. But farther down the ballot, Democratic voters struck a blow at a key progressive policy – and candidates – aimed at criminal justice reform.

The results are in step with national polls that show Americans – both Democrats and Republicans – increasingly concerned about crime, despite an overall drop in violent and property crimes since the 1990s. (Even surges during the COVID-19 pandemic did not see the overall rate reach levels of 25 years ago.)

Crime in particular is a local issue, says Mark Baldassare, survey director for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. Regardless of statistics, what matters most to voters is how they feel about safety at home.

“With issues of crime,” he explains, “what’s important is perceptions. And we had been seeing in our polling that people were showing less confidence in their police and more concern about local crime leading up to this proposition.”

Violent crime down nationally, but public perception varies

California’s crime numbers are relatively high. Violent crimes, which have gone up and down over time, remain 15% higher than in 2019. Homicides involving guns are nearly 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Property crimes went down in most counties last year, but up in some of the largest, including Los Angeles.

In response, California voters brought back felony prosecutions for some drug and theft crimes, and in Los Angeles, replaced Democratic District Attorney George Gascón with a former Republican who ran as an independent. Voters in San Francisco held on to a replacement for the progressive district attorney they recalled in 2022. And voters in Alameda County supported the recall of DA Pamela Price, a criminal justice reform advocate; in Oakland, where the count was not finished Thursday morning, the recall of justice reformer Mayor Sheng Thao looked to be winning in early results.

Mr. Gascón served as San Francisco’s DA before taking up the Los Angeles post in 2020 – amid the COVID-19 pandemic – winning with a platform that offered progressive criminal justice reforms like reduced penalties for low-level crimes in the state’s most populous county.